Where is the happy ending?

It is human nature to want everything to be OK. That is why we love and crave a happy ending in a movie and always want our footy team to win. It is also why we are scrambling for a sign that the economy is going to be just fine, phew the hard times are over!

It is human nature to want everything to be OK. That is why we love and crave a happy ending in a movie and always want our footy team to win. It is also why we are scrambling for a sign that the economy is going to be just fine, phew the hard times are over!

Well it is a bit early for that yet. There is plenty of talk in the headlines around the first ‘green shoots’ of recovery, but in my opinion we are not going to get off quite that easy. It is likely we will be feeling this global financial crisis well in 2010 and any talk otherwise might make us all feel good on the inside, but really it is just spin. When you look at the fundamentals the second half of this year is going to throw up a range of challenges, from rising unemployment, to increased interest rates and the final deadline for the First Home Buyer Grant. The recent economic fall out is like nothing we have seen in recent decades and we need to understand that the issues we face are not going to vaporize so quickly. The regeneration of the economy takes time.

I am not saying that now is a time for pessimism, it is simply a time for realism. Clasping your hands over your eyes and blocking out the reality isn’t going to do anyone any favours. But fronting up to the real situation and forward thinking is.

If you are in business, you always need to think beyond the present day. You need to put strategies in place and be ready and willing to make changes. This is nothing new, even when times are good, solid businesses plan for the down times rather than just letting them sneak up.

If you are selling your home, it is a time to be informed and it is a time to find the right advice. Don’t choose an agent who just tells you what you want to hear, choose an agent who understands the market and is realistic. If you are looking to buy, then ensure you don’t make decisions on what the rest of the world is doing. Don’t be tempted to follow the herd, look at the facts and again, be informed.

No matter who you are, keep your eyes open for the opportunities that present themselves in this current climate, because I assure you they are there.

And in finishing, I have to say it is refreshing to see a little confidence return, it just needs to be harnessed in the right way.

Wise Words

Yesterday morning I went along to hear Christine Christian of Dunn and Bradstreet speak as part of The West Australian’s Leadership Matters breakfast series. And it wasn’t pretty, she offered up a very frank account of the economic situation we are facing. Her opinions are very similar to mine in that despite what the headlines might be saying, I don’t believe we are seeing the beginnings of a recovery just yet. I am not sure that we are going to get off that easy. My sense is that we will be feeling this crisis until well into 2010 and talk of “green shoots recovery” may be a little overly optimistic feel good spin. I am not going to go into all of the finer details of the morning, but I have to say her last words were the most important. They went something like this ‘many businesses are going to realise and maximise the opportunities that are thrown up by this market and those businesses that do survive won’t act like victims.’ Wise words.