Let the facts speak for themselves

Spring – supposedly the “Nirvana” of the real estate year – is upon us once again. With temperatures on the rise, flowers blooming and much talk about an impending interest rate decrease, it might feel like the Perth property market is about to perk up. But don’t let emotion mask the facts – and the facts tell us that there is unlikely to be any radical “bounce back” in
the near future.

It is impossible to predict the future of the property market – unfortunately we don’t have a crystal ball! But according to Realmark principal John Percudani, we can use current data mixed with historical evidence to look at probabilities. And the most recent facts and figures tell us that no matter how much we might want to see a strong positive change, it is unlikely to happen this year.

“If you look at the recent REIWA figures, we can see that the volume of residential transactions or sales is down this June quarter (as compared to March quarter 2007) by 25 per cent,” says Mr Percudani. There are currently 17,500 properties for sale in Western Australia. This equates to about 5 months supply of property. In March 2007, we had only 3.5 months of supply.”

“Not only is there a glut of property, but they are taking longer to sell. The average days on market are 74 as compared to 55 days in March last year. This is an increase of 35 per cent. And we already know that this has had an effect on overall median house prices In Perth which are down approximately four per cent.”

Even with the likelihood of an interest rate drop, which has been touted by the Reserve Bank and the media in recent times, Mr Percudani believes it would unrealistic to expect an upswing in 2008.

“It’s not all doom and gloom – this current downturn is part of the overall property market cycle and with any price correction comes buying opportunities and increased affordability,” says Mr Percudani. “But I think it is important to understand the factors that lead to this downturn in order be realistic about any positive change in the property market ‘curve’.”

Mr Percudani points to a number of events that have influenced today’s market. Not only is there a global economic downturn which has created a general sense of unease and caution amongst buyers and investors, but also our major lenders are suffering from a global credit squeeze, forcing interest rates up. Even if the Reserve Bank lowers interest rates, there is no guarantee that this will be passed on by the banks and lenders who are finding it increasingly difficult to borrow money themselves in the global credit market place.

“All I’m suggesting is that it has taken a number of changes in the market to create the current situation,” says Mr Percudani. “So it would be unrealistic to suggest that only one change – such as a decrease in interest rates – will be enough to radically change the property landscape. We cannot expect one factor alone to influence such a major turn around.”

“Agents are intrinsically optimistic – they want the best price for their clients and themselves,” says Mr Percudani. “But advice that is not based on facts can be misleading and unrealistic. And the current facts tell us that a Spring upturn is unlikely. Agents need to be using transparent evidence on which to base their estimates. Otherwise sellers will be living with false hope.