Breath easy, the grant stays

So finally we have our answer, the first home buyers grant will remain for three months at the full rate and three months at a reduced rate.

*Insert collective sighs of relief from the entire real estate industry here.*

This is a good move by the Government and one that has seen the industry dodge a very large bullet. If the grant was ceased on June 30 first home buyer activity would have come to a screaming halt and the market place repercussions would have been quite dramatic.

Through phasing out the grant the Government has paved the way for a more orderly market adjustment. The economy is expected to stabilise over the next 6 months and interest rates are expected to stay low. Together these two factors provide an opportunity to offset any shock when the grants do finally stop. The move to keep the grant for both existing and new properties is also positive and avoids any distortion.

So what now? Well historically Government intervention coupled with low interest rates is the pre-curser to the upside of the property cycle. This doesn’t mean everything is roses, what is does mean I think is that the market is likely to continue ticking along as it is until well into 2010 – it is a time to have a positive, but balanced view of the market place.

What was missed in the budget is any sweeteners for investors and second and third tier buyers. Investors are a big piece of the puzzle that is missing right now and through creating strategies that would entice them back into market the Government could have created a far more balanced market place, rather than just relying on the first home buyers to keep us a float. Australia is also in the midst of an ever growing housing stock crisis which cannot be addressed by the first home buyers grant alone. I have pointed out the need to broaden the stimulus here before, so I won’t cover too much old territory there.

All in all budget night was a positive night for the industry. The ‘what ifs?’ around the first home buyers grant are now answered and it is business as usual.